摘要
农业机械总动力是评价一个国家农业现代化程度的重要指标。根据2003-2007年我国农业机械总动力的历史数据,采用基于灰预测的指数增长模型对农业机械总动力进行了预测。在模型建立前,进行了级比平滑检验,认为数据具有建立灰预测模型的基础;模型建立后,又进行了相对误差检验、后验差检验和残差检验。检验结果表明,模型具有较高的精度,适合中长期预测。最后,根据该模型给出了2010-2012年我国农业机械总动力的预测结果,认为我国农业机械总动力将于2012年达到103 222亿kW。
Agricultural machinery gross power is one of the main targets to appraise the agricultural strength of a country.This thesis worked on the datas of agricultural machinery gross power in China between 2003 to 2007,and used gray models to predict.Before the model established,the smooth conduct of the inspection,that the data are the basis for the establishment of gray prediction model;model is established,but also conducted a relative error test,a posteriori differential test and residual test.The test results show that the model has a high precision,suitable for long-term pre-diction.Finally it got the result and,gave the predict results form 2010 to 2012.
出处
《农机化研究》
北大核心
2010年第12期49-51,56,共4页
Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research
关键词
农业机械总动力
灰色模型
预测
agricultural machinery gross power
gray model
predict
