摘要
以深圳市龙岗区为研究区,通过空间分析、土地利用转移矩阵、Moran’s I指数来研究土地利用的时空变化特征,应用马尔科夫模型预测未来用地结构的变化,并探讨土地利用变化的影响因素。研究表明:农用地除园地保持增长外均逐渐减少,面积最大的林地是各类新增用地尤其是园地的主要土地来源;建设用地持续扩张,除林地外未利用土地是其主要来源,而在2000年后建设用地扩张大量侵占园地与耕地;各类用地均呈分散趋势;建设用地将成为主导用地类型,其余类型用地均显著减少;城市化和工业化进程推动了建设用地扩张过程,在规划影响下工矿仓储用地与居住用地间存在着相互转换;园地在占有林地空间的同时被建设用地侵蚀,而短期呈现难以持续的增长势头。
We took Longgang district as an example, analyzed and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of land use by using spatial analysis, land use transition matrix and Moran＇s I index, and predicted the future change of land use by using Markov chain model, finally, we tried to explore the factors that influenced the change. The result showed that agricultural lands were diminishing except garden; forest land with the largest area was the main sources of new land, especially garden; construction land continued to increase, and mainly from forest and unused land, at the same time, expansion of construction land would seized a lot of garden and arable land; all types of land showed a trend of decentralization; construction land would be the dominant land type, the other types would reduced significantly; the process of urbanization and industrialization process promoted the expansion of construction land, under the influence of planning mining storage space and residential land existed mutual transformation; garden not occupied the woodland space, but was eroded by construction land, and would show unsustainable growth in the short term
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第10期1712-1716,1734,共6页
Economic Geography
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目群(编号:KZCX2-YW-Q10-4)资助
关键词
土地利用
时空变化
马尔科夫模型
龙岗区
land use
temporal and spatial changes
Markov chain model
Longgang district
