摘要
根据元件和系统的停运模型,通过蒙特卡洛抽样法得到系统各故障状态发生的概率。通过表格法或熵权法量化每种故障对城市电网的影响,综合考虑系统故障发生的概率和影响求得风险值即风险指标,并以图表的形式将风险指标和可靠性指标直观地表示出来。根据图示结果分析电网每一个节点的风险值以及风险的主要成因,并且有针对性地提出改进建议。求取风险指标的过程中,如果考虑的情况很多可以采用熵权法,而针对一般的城市电网采用表格法。
According to outage model of components and systems,the Monte Carlo sampling method is used to get the probability of occurrence of system fault. T he impact of all the fault of urban grid is quantified by form method or entropy method. T he probability of system failure occurrence and impact are considered comprehensively to get the value of the risk. T he form of risk indicators and the reliability indicators are showed intuitively by chart.According to the results of form, the risk value of each node and the main causes of risk are showed ,a nd targeted recommendations for improvement are proposed. I n the process of seeking risk indicators, if a lot of cases need to be considered entropy weight method can be used, otherwise form method is enough.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第19期114-117,共4页
Power System Protection and Control
关键词
城市电网
风险评估
蒙特卡洛
熵权法
可靠性
urban grid
risk assessment
Monte Carlo
entropy method
reliability
