摘要
基于风险分析基本理论,建立岩溶路基风险发生概率等级、风险事故损失等级与风险分级评价指标。针对岩溶路基稳定性影响因素取值所具有的不确定性,采用三角模糊表示参数取值,建立岩溶路基模糊极限平衡分析模型,并综合运用Hoek-B rown准则、岩体质量分类指标RMR与模糊数学理论建立出岩体力学参数三角模糊数确定方法。然后,采用模糊能度可靠性分析方法计算岩溶路基失稳概率,并通过探讨岩溶路基风险后果等级划分标准建立岩溶路基风险损失确定方法,进而得高速公路岩溶路基稳定性风险分析方法。最后,将其用于湖南省某高速公路工程。
Based on the discussion of the risk analysis theory, rank of risk probability, loss rank of risk accident and standard of risk assessment were firstly proposed. Secondly, there is uncertainty to the affecting factors of the roadbed stability. The triangular fuzzy values were used to parameter values. The fuzzy limit equilibrium analysis model of karst roadbed was suggested. And the triangular fuzzy values of the rock mass mechanical parameters were present by using Hoek -Brown failure criterion, rock mass classification index RMR and fuzzy mathematics theory. Thirdly, the failure possibility of earst roadbed can be calculated through the fuzzy probability reliability analysis method. The determination method of risk lost to carst roadbed can be suggested by discussing the risk result rank of earst roadbed. Then the risk analysis method of carst roadbed stability in expressway was presented. Finally, the method is used to analysis one expressway project in Hunan province.
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
2010年第4期61-66,共6页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
关键词
岩溶路基
风险分析
模糊数学
模糊能度
风险损失
carst roadbed
risk analysis
fuzzy mathematics
fuzzy probability
risk lost
