摘要
根据旬邑县1989-2009年统计资料,分析该县近二十年来耕地面积动态变化过程,并选取GDP、人口、城镇化水平等10个社会经济因子,采用单因子关联分析和多因子主成分分析法,研究社会经济发展对耕地面积变化的影响,并揭示了引起耕地数量变化的驱动机制,为生态脆弱区合理保护耕地资源提供参考。结果表明:1989-2009年旬邑县耕地面积总体上呈现下降趋势,经历了稳步减少(1989-2000年)、缓慢减少(2000-2003年)到平稳(2003-2009年)的发展阶段。主成分分析结果表明导致该县耕地面积变化的驱动因素为经济发展、人口增长和农业科技进步。
Dynamic process of arable land area and its driving forces in Xunyi county were discussed based on statistic data from 1989 to 2009 in Xunyi county during the past 20 years in this paper.The driving factors of social index affecting the arable land area change were studied using single factor association analysis and principal component analysis by selecting 10 social factors,including GDP,population and urbanization level,etc.The purpose of study trying to discover the driving factors and providing a reference for the rational conservation of cultivated land recourses in ecologically fragile regions.The results showed that： the general trend of arable land area presented reduction in the study period.The change has experienced three stages： the steadily reduction stage（1989-2000）,slow reduction stage（2000-2003） and smooth change stage（2003-2009）.The driving factors that affect the changes of arable land area in study area are economic development,population and advanced technology of agriculture.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期59-62,67,共5页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BCA01A07-2)
关键词
耕地面积变化
主成分分析
驱动力
旬邑县
change of arable land area
principal component analysis
driving forces
Xunyi county
