摘要
采用水文序列中常用的谱分析、有序聚类分析、Kendall秩次相关检验和Man-Kendall检验等方法,分别对郑州市1951-2008年的年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列进行周期性、突变性和趋势性检验分析,结果显示:总体上郑州市年降雨量保持平稳,但各年汛期和非汛期的降雨量分别呈现出增加和减少的趋势,而且非汛期降雨量减少的趋势性较为显著;年降雨量和汛期降雨量有较为显著的近似10 a的周期,而非汛期降雨量表现为不显著的3 a的周期;年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列的突变点均在20世纪70年代末和80年代初,但并不显著。
Spectral analysis,sequence clustering analysis,Kendall rank correlation test and Man-Kendall trend test were applied in analyzing the cycle,mutation and trend of precipitation of annual,flood season and non-flood season in Zhengzhou from 1951 to 2008.The results indicated that annual precipitation maintained steady;there are precipitation increasing and reducing trends both in flood season and non-flood season,but precipitation reducing trend is obviously in non-flood season.The significant cycle of annual precipitation and flood season precipitation in Zhengzhou is 10 years,but cycle of non-flood season precipitation is 3 years and non significant.And the non significant mutation point of precipitation of annual,flood season and non-flood season occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2010年第3期18-22,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2009A57008)资助
关键词
趋势分析
周期分析
突变分析
降雨量
trend analysis
cycle analysis
mutation analysis
precipitation
