摘要
基于VAR(vecfor autoren ression)模型Johansen极大似然法和Granger因果关系检验法对滨海新区与环渤海地区经济增长的互动关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,天津滨海新区与环渤海地区经济增长存在长期稳定的互动关系:一是天津滨海新区的经济增长不仅有利于自身的发展,而且也有利于环渤海地区的经济增长,但现阶段的滨海新区还处于自身的增长阶段,对环渤海地区经济增长的辐射作用还没有充分凸显出来;二是环渤海地区对天津滨海新区经济增长具有支撑作用,实证分析表明山东和辽宁地区与滨海新区经济增长的互动效应最明显。
Based on Johansen maximum likelihood method and the impulse response analysis of VAR model,this paper conducts empirical studies on the interactive relationship of economic growth between Tianjin Binhai New Area and the Bohai Sea region.The results show that there exists a long-term stable interactive relationship of economic growth between the two regions.On one hand,economic growth in Binhai New Area is beneficial not only to itself,but also to economic growth of the Bohai Sea region.However the radiation function of Tianjin Binhai New Area to the Bohai Sea Region in at present has not been fully displayed due to the stage of growth of polarization.On the other hand,economic growth in the Bohai Sea region has supported economic growth in Tianjin Binhai New Area,and the variance decomposition indicates that economic growth in Shandong province and Liaoning province exerts the most obvious effects on the economic growth in Tianjin Binhai New Area.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2010年第4期338-342,共5页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(09YJA790058)
天津社科规划基金资助项目(TJYY08-1-037)
河北省科技发展战略规划基金资助项目(08457248D)
河北省科技发展战略规划基金资助项目(0745720D-5)
天津市软科学基金资助项目(06ZLZLZT01300)
关键词
滨海新区
环渤海地区
VAR模型
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
Tianjin Binhai New Area
Bohai Sea region
VAR model
impulse response function
variance decomposition
