摘要
通过对深圳市境外游客数量的分析，发现除个别年份以外，整个时间序列总体呈增长趋势．根据客流量与时间的关系，利用灰色系统理论建立深圳市境外游客市场的ＧＭ（１，１）动态灰色预测模型．该模型经过检验，不仅与实际客流量相吻合，还可较精确地给出短期甚至中期的预报结果。
For analysing the market of overseas tourists in Shenzhen,a dynamic grey prediction model known as GM(1,1) model is formed by applying theory of grey system.Starting from analysing the amount of overseas tourist in the city,this research model is formed in the light of the relation between tourist flow and time.The model tallies with the actual tourist flow,it may also be used for predicting tourist flow in the coming years.
出处
《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
1999年第3期326-328,共3页
Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金
