摘要
运用山西省忻州市670组农村劳动力的截面数据,考察非农活动参与率与性别、收入、年龄、受教育年限和土地数量的关系,并运用Logit模型估计农村劳动力分化不同动因的各自影响程度及其综合作用下的分化程度,然后依据分化程度分析劳动力转移的概率。实证表明:非农收入是农村劳动力选择参与非农活动的最主要动因;年龄、性别、文化程度和土地数量对劳动力参与非农活动的影响非常显著。按照分化程度与转移可能性的数量关系,可将农村劳动力划分完全转移、一级潜在转移、二级潜在转移以及农村必需劳动力四个类型,并可模拟得出具有政策指导意义的农村劳动力转移概率。
This paper has investigated the relationship between the non-agriculture activities and gender, income, age, education level as well as land scale through a 670-group cross-section data, has estimated how the various factors influent respectively and comprehensively on the rural labor force differentiation based on the Logit model, hence it analyzes the transition probability subject to the degree of rural labor force. It is concluded that the higher non-agriculture income is one of the most significant incentives to make the rural labor force participate into the non-agriculture activities while another factors such as age, gender, education level and land scale cannot be ignored. According to relationship between the differentiation degree and transition probability, the rural labor force has been divided into four types such as the necessary, transiting, the senior transiting and transited labor force, with which a group of transition probability can be simulated as a useful preference.
出处
《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第4期25-31,共7页
Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)
基金
西北农林科技大学资助项目(2008CX011)
关键词
农村劳动力
非农活动
分化程度
转移概率
rural labor force
non-agriculture activities
degree of differentiation
transition probability
