摘要
选取大丰市气候(1960-2007年)及两种候鸟——家燕(Hirundo rustica)(1989-2007年)和四声杜鹃(Cuculus micropterus)(1995-2007年)的物候期资料,利用一元线性回归、多元逐步回归和M-K突变检验方法,分析了大丰市气候及两种候鸟物候期的趋势变化特征及候鸟物候期对气候变化的响应关系。结果表明:(1)近48a来大丰市年平均气温上升趋势明显,倾向率为0.18℃.10a-1(P<0.01),于2004-2005年发生突变性增温;年平均风速呈极显著的下降趋势(P<0.01),总日照时数、累积降水量的变化趋势不明显(P>0.05);(2)物候期变化趋势表现在家燕始见期、四声杜鹃始鸣期均略有提早,家燕始、绝见期间隔时间略有延长,四声杜鹃间隔期以20.2d.10a-1的速率极显著缩短;(3)影响家燕始见期、间隔期的敏感气候因子是3月平均风速,影响其绝见期的敏感气候因子是5月平均温度;影响四声杜鹃始鸣期的敏感气候因子是5月总日照时数,影响其绝鸣期的关键气候因子是年平均风速、6月平均温度及7月累积降水量,影响间隔期的关键气候因子是年平均风速、6月平均温度及7月总日照时数。说明候鸟物候期对气候变化响应比较敏感,可作为气候变化的指示器。
Based on the meteorological data of Dafeng station from 1960 to 2007 and the phonological phase for two kinds of migrants such as barn swallow（Hirundo rustica） and indian cuckoo（Cuculus micropterus） during 1989-2007 and 1995-2007.The climate change and response of two kinds of migrants to climate changes were analyzed,by using the statistics,multiple stepwise regression and M-K abrupt analysis method.The results showed that the annual average temperature increased at the rate of 0.18℃ per decade（P〈0.01）,and abrubt change occurred during 2004 to 2005.The annual average wind speed reduced significantly（P〈0.01）.The sunshine duration and the annual precipitation changed no significant（P〉0.05）.The initial immigration period（IIP） for barn swallow and starting warble phase（SWP） for indian cuckoo were advanced.The duration between SWP and halting warble phase（HWP） of barn swallow was significantly extended,as indian cuckoo was shortened at the rate 20.2d per decade.The main climate factors,which affected IIP and the duration between IIP for barn swallow and HIP for indian cuckoo were different.But in general,phenology of migrants was very sensitive to climate change,which could consider as the indicator of climate change.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2010年第3期338-343,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
中国气象局预测减灾应用技术开发推广项目(CMATG2004M21)
南京信息工程大学科研基金(20070023)
