Modelling Agronomically-Suitable Sowing Date in Relation to the Risk of Frost Damage and Heat Stress of Wheat in Southern New South Wales, Australia
Modelling Agronomically-Suitable Sowing Date in Relation to the Risk of Frost Damage and Heat Stress of Wheat in Southern New South Wales, Australia
摘要
Sowing time of wheat in south eastern Australia varies from autumn to early winter, depending on the seasonal ＇break＇. Wheat yields are often reduced by frost damage at flowering time and by heat-and/or water-stress during grain filling. Selecting suitable varieties for specific sowing times is a complex decision farmers make because these varietal phenology and climate risks have to be assessed together. In order to help farmers make decisions, they need tools that simulate and analyse agronomically-suitable sowing dates （ASSD） for a given variety of wheat. The hypothesis underlining this study is the integration of a wheat phenology model with historical climate data is an effective approach to modelling the ASSD of current varieties used in the wheat growing areas of Southern NSW. The parameters of the wheat phenology model were based on data from five years of field experimentation across 15 sites. Data from four sites were used to examine varietal suitability in relation to sowing time and its associated risks of frost and heat damage. The optimum ASSD for any variety at 72 locations across Southern NSW was investigated. The results showed that there were substantial spatial variations in the ASSD across the target region. ASSD for a late maturing wheat genotype （EGA Gregory） can range from early March to late April, while the earliest acceptable sowing date for an early maturing spring wheat genotype （H46） can range from early to late May. The wide range of spatial variation in the earliest and latest sowing dates, as well as the varied length of sowing opportunities, highlighted the importance of being able to apply a modelling approach which can integrate information on crop phenology with climate risk for a given location. This approach would allow better decision-making on suitable varieties and sowing dates in order to minimise the risk of frost and heat damage affecting crop yield.
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