摘要
预测了中国未来１５年的经济增长和结构变化．基于对未来人口、劳动力的增长和部门水平上的技术变化的估计，本文运用递推动态的多部门可计算一般均衡（ＣＧＥ）模型，模拟了１９９５年～２０１０年中国经济增长和产业、就业和贸易结构的变化趋势．
This paper projects economic growth and structural change of China in the next 15 years based upon estimations of future population, labour forces growth and industry level technological change. The analysis is conducted by a multi sectoral, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China. The importance of biased technological change is stressed in this paper.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第2期88-95,共8页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
经济增长
结构变化
CGE模型
经济指标
economic growth
structural change
computable general equilibrium analysis
