摘要
中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建立对中美贸易摩擦的影响可以从三个方面来阐述:CAFTA建立后的贸易转移效应、贸易条件效应以及CAFTA与ARF(东盟地区论坛)的冲突效应。首先,CAFAT的建立所带来的贸易转移效应对美国与东盟之间的贸易产生了不小的冲击,加剧了中美贸易摩擦;其次,CAFTA建立后,东盟对美国的贸易意愿逐步减弱,美国对东盟的贸易条件恶化,从而进一步加剧了中美贸易摩擦;最后,CAFTA的建立与ARF产生了冲突效应,导致美国做出了一系列在政治、经济上重返东南亚的举措,这又进一步加剧了中美贸易摩擦。
The impact of the construction of Sino-ASEAN Free Trade Area on Sino-US frictions can be elaborated from the following three aspects： trade diversion effect after the construc- tion of CAFTA, terms of trade effect and the conflicting effect between CAFTA and ARF. Firstly, the trade diversion effect brought by the construction of CAFAT has produced a great impact on the trade between USA and ASEAN, which strengthens the Sino-US frictions. Secondly, ASEAN＇ s willingness to trade with USA shrinks after the construction of CAFTA. The terms of trade of USA to ASEAN deteriorates, which further strengthens the Sino-US frictions. Lastly, the conflicting effect between the construction of CAFTA and ARF leads to a series of actions took by USA on politics and economics aiming to return to South-east Asia, which further strengthens the Sino-US frictions.
