摘要
利用1978-2008年湖北省耕地面积、地区经济增长、城市化率、地方财政收入数据,采用Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型分析湖北省社会经济因素对耕地变化的影响。研究结果表明湖北省经济增长、城镇化、地方财政收入对耕地面积存在单向因果关系;社会经济因素与耕地面积在长期存在均衡关系,短期内则有26%的非均衡波动在下一期被修正;在长期,经济增长、城镇化率、地方财政收入对耕地变化影响的弹性系数分别为-0.02,0.03和-0.16;在短期,城镇化率和地方财政收入对耕地变化影响的弹性系数分别为0.03和-0.06。研究结论:湖北省作为产粮大省之一,保护耕地尤为重要;协调耕地保护与经济发展之间的关系应采取短期严格控制和长期协调发展的策略,促使耕地保护与经济发展达到"双赢"。
The propose of this paper is to study the relationship between cultivated land change and socio-economic factors in Hubei province. Methods employed Granger causality test and error correction model based on yearly time series of cultivated land area, gross regional product, urbanization level and local finance revenue from 1978 to 2008 in Hubei province to analyze relationship between cultivated land change and factors. Results reveal that regional economic growth, urbanization and local government＇ s pursuing of maximum of local finance revenue will lead to cultivated land change in one-way cause. Society and economic factors and farmland area have the long-term balanced relationship, and the velocity of the short-term variation approaching the long-term equilibrium is 26%. The long-term cointegration equation reveals that the economic growth elasticity of cultivated land is - 0.02, urbanization level elasticity of cultivated land is 0.03 and local finance revenue elasticity is - 0.16. The short-term error correction equation reveals the urbanization level elasticity of cultivated land is 0.03, while local finance revenue elasticity is - 0.06. It is concluded that, as a big food production province, Hubei should take seriously in protection of cultivated land; to harmonize cultivated land and socio-economic development, long-term and short-term measures should be taken.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期107-111,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70773047)
国家社会科学基金项目(编号:08BZZ026)
武汉市社会科学基金项目(编号:09035)
