摘要
环境污染在两个方面改变了经济增长模型,一方面它是产出的联合产品,另一方面它给消费者带来负效用。我们分析了以下几个问题:环境保护与经济增长是否相容;长期来看无污染积累的可持续增长是否可能;环境对经济增长的影响;如果引入环境因素,我们关注的关键变量如:收入、消费、资本以及环境污染的最优路径如何变化,据此可以推出哪些可驳斥的推断;观测数据与环境库茨涅茨曲线的理论推断特征是否相符。文章根据标准的经济学理论基础假设构建了一个理论模型,在设定了偏好、技术、禀赋、信息后,求出动态一般均衡解路径。使用环境污染的观测数据,附加关键参数的先验分布,运用贝叶斯推断求出参数的后验分布对理论模型的推断进行验证。文章的主要贡献是对环境库茨涅茨曲线采用了不同于传统回归分析的贝叶斯回归技术,并得出了有意义的分析结果。
Environmental pollution changed the economic growth model in two ways,on the one hand it is the joint product of output,on the other hand it gives consumers a negative utility.We analyzed the following issues：it is compatible for environmental protection and economic growth;in the long run it is possible pollution-free accumulation of sustainable growth;The impact of environment on economic growth;if we introduce environmental factors,optimal paths of the key variables we concerned about such as：income,consumption,capital and pollution＇s changes,and inferences can be refuted.Is it consistent with the inference of environmental Kuznets curve for observational data.Based on standard economic theory assumes：the preferences,technology,endowments,information,we constrct a model and find the path of dynamic general equilibrium solution.We used the observational data of environmental pollution,additional the prior distribution of key parameters,using Bayesian inference derived the posterior distribution of the parameters and verified the inferences of theoretical model.Our main contribution is that we used Bayesian regression techniques different from the traditional regression analysis to the environmental Kuznets curve,and have come to a meaningful analysis results.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2010年第9期56-60,共5页
East China Economic Management
