摘要
针对燃煤电站生产过程复杂,运行安全难以准确评价的问题,提出了基于证据理论的安全评价方法。该方法考虑了电站安全评价证据的不精确性和不完全性。在构建燃煤电站安全评价多属性决策树的基础上,提出了定量和定性证据相结合的方法,分别给出了定性和定量两种安全决策知识的获取和转化方法。建立了决策树安全评价模型,给出了证据推理算法。将该方法应用于某2×600 MW燃煤电站的安全评价,充分利用电站运行与维护数据、安全检查结果,确定了电站运行安全状态。结果表明,该方法可行有效,解决了部分证据不精确和不完全的安全评价问题,评价结果为运行与维修决策和安全整改提供依据。
In the present article, a safety evaluation method of fuelfired power plant based on evidence theory is proposed. In this method, the uncertainty and incompleteness of safety evaluation evidences are comprehensively considered. The method integrating qualitative and quantitative evidences is suggested based on the construction of multiple-attribute decision-making tree for safety evaluation. The acquisition and transformation methods of qualitative and quantitative safety decision evidences are also provided. A decision tree of safety evaluation model is then established and the corresponding evidential reasoning algorithm is provided. The method is further applied for evaluating the safety level of a 2 ×600 MW power plant. Accompanied with the equipment managing information, operation and maintenance history, inspection and testing results, condition monitoring and operation parameters as well as the qualitative judgments of safety evaluation personnel, the safety condition is determined by using the provided method. The result showed that the whole power plant＇ s safety condition is good and it is permitted to operate continuously. The analysis of the evaluation result revealed that the pitfalls of the power plant operational safety are the leakage of 2 # economizer, the vibration of 1 # water-feed pump and the accumulation of fine coal in pulverizing system. All pitfalls should be solved in appropriate time frame. The example indicated that this method is feasible and effective. It is able to deal with the uncertain and incomplete evidences for safety evaluation and the results can be used as a support for the operation, maintenance decision making and safety correction.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期179-183,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(60704030)
关键词
安全工程
燃煤电站
证据理论
层次分析法
安全评价
safety engineering
fossil fuel-fired power plant
evidence theory
AHP
safety evaluation
