摘要
针对西南区域（云、贵、川、渝）汛期（６－８月）旱涝预测问题，建立了一种以多种物理因子为基础的西南区域降水量预测模型，即因子集成及综合相似预测模型。该模型既考虑影响西南区域汛期降水的主要物理因素变化，又注重区域要素场自身演变规律。对于影响汛期旱涝的物理因子，采用对多个因素进行综合集成的办法，来体现所有因素对旱涝影响的整体作用。为了强调预测结果的客观性，我们借鉴目前ＮＷＰ集合预报思想，引入综合相似方法，给出西南区域大范围汛期降水距平百分率预测结果。近年来业务试用表明，该方法预测准确率稳定。
Based on the itegration and similarity method of multiple factors,the model of dryness and wetness forecast during flood seasons (from June to August) over southwest region is established.The model includes both physical factors from atmosphere,ocean etc. and the self variation of forecast element.The forecast accuracy and score skill of the model is satisfactory in terms of 10 years of independent forecast test.At last,the precipitation anomaly percent forecast during flood season over southwest region in 1998 is calculated.
关键词
西南区域
旱涝预测
因子集成
综合相似
预测模型
Southwest region,Dryness wetness forecast,Factors integration,Similarity method,Forecast score
