摘要
人民币持续升值引发热钱的大量流入，并以此对我国资产市场泡沫的产生发挥了推波助澜的作用。本文将资产价格引入IS----LM模型后，对汇率影响实体经济的资产价格路径进行了理论分析。在此基础上的实证分析结果显示，汇率、房地产销售价格指数与产出之间存在协整关系。短期内，汇率通过股票市场对工业产值的影响在某些时间内非常显著，而其他情况下则十分不确定，有些时间段内从变动方向上来看甚至相反。这种不稳定性，可能与资产价格暴涨对实体经济增长的“挤出效应”有关。
Since the exchange rate reform, the continued appreciation of the RMB caused the influx of hot money, and played a great role in fueling asset market bubbles （especially property prices） , public atten- tion focus on the trend of the real economy because of the soared asset prices in recent years. The article in- troduces the asset price into IS- LM model, asset price path of the exchange rate affects the real economy are analyzed theoretically, and on this basis for the empirical analysis showed that the long run co- integra- tion relationship exists among the exchange rate the house sales price index and the output, but adjusted slowly from the deviation to equilibrium. In the short term, the stock market price path of the exchange rate affects the real economy, in some time, is very significant, while in the other cases very uncertain, and the direction of change was even opposite in some period. This instability may be related to the Crowding Out Effect of booming asset price on real economic growth.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期63-70,共8页
Finance & Economics
关键词
汇率
实体经济
资产价格
Exchange Rate
Asset Price
Real Economy
