摘要
扩大消费需求、尤其是居民消费需求对经济发展的拉动作用,是促进国民经济持续、快速、稳定发展的重要举措。本文采用经济计量分析方法,对居民消费对山东省经济发展的影响效应进行实证研究。结果表明,山东省居民消费与经济增长之间具有长期稳定的协整关系,经济增长是居民消费的Granger原因,但从居民消费到经济增长的因果关系不显著。在短期内,当期居民消费对经济增长具有正的拉动作用,但是作用效果不够显著;滞后三期的居民消费对经济增长的变化呈现负相关。当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,系统纠正偏离长期均衡的过程较为缓慢。
The current international financial crisis impacts on export demands enormously, and the investment - dependent model of economic growth is unsustainable. So it is more and more important to expand the consumption expenditure, especially household consumption driving economic development rapidly and stably. With econometric analysis, we carried an empirical research on household consumption influencing the economic development. Then we analyzed the impacts and constraints of household consumption in Shandong Province on economic development, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
出处
《山东商业职业技术学院学报》
2010年第3期5-8,共4页
Journal of Shandong Institute of Commerce and Technology
