摘要
以山东大学为例，基于GIS、FRAGSTATS软件平台，采用景观组成结构特征指数和多样性指数定量分析了1996—2009年山东大学城市土地利用变化，特别是建设用地的空间格局及变化特征；并使用马尔科夫链预测其未来几十年的变化趋势．研究结果表明，山东大学研究时间段内城市建设用地迅速增加，而城市绿地和农业用地明显减少；济南整体景观格局的破碎度加大．在未来的几十年里，山东大学建设用地面积呈增加的趋势，绿地和农业用地持续减少．研究结果将为城市土地利用的规划和城市自然景观的管理与保护提供参考和依据．
The objective of this paper is to apply landscape metrics to quantitatively analyze land use changes during 1996 to 2009 in Jinan City, using the SPOT and ALOS images. Markov process was used to simulate and forecast the land use structure in the following few decades supported with Fragstats and GIS software. Additionally, transformation matrices between different years were adopted to present the diverse relationships of land use patterns. The results demonstrated that the built - up area of Jinan increased rapidly, accordingly the urban green spaces and agriculture land decreased obviously in the study period. The fragmentation of the overall landscape in Jinan City was increasing. The trend of building land continual increasing and green space and cultivated land continual decreasing will last in the coming years. The results will be valuable to urban planners to evaluate the existing urban policies and consequently develop appropriate responses or strategies for the urban sustainable development.
出处
《山东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2010年第2期88-91,96,共5页
Journal of Shandong Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目（30700097）：留学归国基会资助项目（40701047）.
关键词
城市空间格局
景观指标
马尔科夫链
济南
urban spatial pattern
landscape metrics
Markov process
Jinan City
