摘要
假设中国省域产业结构间存在空间依赖性,提出了研究产业结构变化的空间滞后模型和地理加权回归模型,分别在全域和局域内,对中国31个省域产业结构变化进行了空间计量回归.结果显示:1)假设得以证实——省域产业结构间存在显著的空间依赖性;2)产业结构初始值、人均GDP等因素对产业结构变动的影响具有显著的空间变异现象,即这些因素对产业结构的影响依据区域不同存在显著差别.基于这两点,得出主要结论:为推进省域产业结构的高级化,应将邻接省域产业结构状况加以考虑,作为一个系统整体分析;并且考虑到要素具有的空间变异性,针对不同区域确定主要影响因素分析研究.
It was supposed that the spatial interdependence of industrial structure between Chinese provincial regions exists significantly.Spatial lag model and geographically weighted regression model were proposed on the base of the above hypothesis,which aim to study the adjustment of industrial structure. Using above spatial models,spatial econometric regressions on the adjustment of industrial structure of Chinese 31 provincial regions were performed in the global region and the local region respectively.The results show：1） The hypothesis that the spatial interdependence between Chinese provincial regions exist significantly is approved;2） the factors of GDP per capita,the fundamental level of provincial regions etc show significant spatial variability.Based on the two empirical results,we got the key conclusion that the government should take into account the industrial structure of surrounding provincial regions as well as the spatial variability of factors that have impact on the adjustment of industrial structure in order to promote the optimization of industrial structure.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期993-1001,共9页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家公派留学基金(2008101096)
关键词
省域产业结构
空间计量经济模型
地理加权回归
industrial structure of Chinese provincial regions
spatial econometric models
geographically weighted regression model
