摘要
灰色系统分析,主要依据少量的历史信息对未来进行可信的预测,这是灰色系统理论最突出的特点。本文通过松扁叶蜂生命表的编制,了解到影响其种群的变化规律,并用灰色系统中发展动态的分析理论进行预测。此法,克服了传统建模中需要大量数据,要求分布较典型、计算量大的缺点,为今后林木病虫测报提出一条新的途径。
Based mainly on limited historical information, the grey systems analysis gives a relia-ble prediction for future, which is the most conspicuous characteristics of grey systems the-ory. The regularity affecting the change of population of A. posticalis was found in the lightof its life table, and predicted using the analysis theory of developing dynamics in grey sys-tems. By using the method such shortcomings in traditional establishment of models couldbe eliminated as requiring a lot of data and typical distribution, and much work of calcula-tion. It is considered a new way of predicting forest pests and diseases.
出处
《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
1990年第2期16-18,42,共4页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition
关键词
松扁叶蜂
种群
灰色预测
模型
检验
grey prediction
pest population
model
Acatholyda posticalis Matsumura
