期刊文献+

我国黄金期货市场价格波动率实证研究 被引量:2

在线阅读 下载PDF
导出
摘要 中国于2008年1月9日在上海期货交易所推出了黄金期货,这标志着我国黄金流通的市场化由现货市场与期货市场并驾齐驱的新纪元。GARCH族模型较好的你喝了实证研究中发现的资产收益的肥尾、波动率集聚等特征,广泛应用于资产收益与波动率的分析。本文应用GARCH、EGARCH、GARCH-M等GARCH族模型扩展形式,对我国黄金期货进行分析,论证了其时间序列具有肥尾、波动率集聚特征,很强的波动持续性存在ARCH效应。通过对模型的拟合,认为我国黄金期货市场不存在杠杆效应和高风险高回报特征。
作者 郭泽宇
出处 《现代商业》 2010年第14期10-11,13,共3页 Modern Business
  • 相关文献

参考文献7

  • 1华仁海,仲伟俊.我国期货市场期货价格收益、交易量、波动性关系的动态分析[J].统计研究,2003,20(7):25-30. 被引量:79
  • 2华仁海.[D].南京:东南大学,2004.
  • 3姬广坡,杨俊虹.中国期货市场自回归条件异方差效应实证研究[J].经济评论,2004(5):100-103. 被引量:5
  • 4Edel Tully,Brian M Lucey.A power GARCH examination of the gold market.Research in International Business and Finance.June 2007,Pages 316-525.
  • 5Jonathan Batten,Brian Lucey.Volatility in the Gold Futures Markut.Institute for lnternational Integration Studies Discussion paper.No.225,June 2007.
  • 6Ramaprasad,Shigeyuki.Information Flow Between Price and Trading volume in Gold Futures Contracts[J].lnternational Journal of Business and Economics.2004,(3):45-56.
  • 7Girma PB,Mougou é M.An Empirical Examination of the Relation Between Futures Spreads Volatility,Volume,and Open Interest[J].Journal of Futures Markets,2007,22(11):1083-1102.

二级参考文献24

  • 1徐剑刚,唐国兴.我国股票市场报酬与波动的GARCH-M模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1995,12(12):28-32. 被引量:32
  • 2汤果.FIGARCH模型对股市收益长忆性的实证分析[J].统计研究,2000,(1).
  • 3Engle, R., 1982. "Autoregressire Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estinates of the Variance of UK Inflation. " Econometrica, 50, pp. 987-1008.
  • 4Bollerslev, T. A., 1986. " Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity." Journal of Econometrics, 31, pp. 307 - 327.
  • 5Mandelbrot, B., 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices."Joumal of Busing, s, Vol. 36, pp. 394 - 419.
  • 6Mandelort, B. and Taqqu, M., 1979. "Robust R/S Analysis of Long Run Serial Correlation." Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, 48(Book 2),pp.59 - 104.
  • 7Fama, E., 1965. "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices. " Joumal of Business, 38, pp. 34 - 105.
  • 8Chen, G., Firth, M. and Rui, O. M. ( 2001 ) : The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatiity[ J]. The Financial Review, 38,153 ~ 174.
  • 9Clark, P. K. ( 1973 ) : A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices[J]. Econometrica,41,135 ~ 155.
  • 10Copeland, T. E. (1976) : A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival[ J]. Journal of Finance, Vol. 31,1149 ~ 1168.

共引文献82

同被引文献24

  • 1刘浩然.黄金价格影响因素和投资策略分析[J].价格理论与实践,2007(10):57-58. 被引量:15
  • 2Chou R Y. Volatility persistence and stock valuation:Some empirical evidence using GARCH[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,1988,(04):279-294.
  • 3Poon S H,Taylor S J. Stock return and volatility:an empirical study of the UK stock market[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,1992,(01):37-59.
  • 4Hamilton J D,Susmel R. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime[J].Journal of Econometrics,1994,(1/2):307-333.
  • 5Fisher R A. On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,1922.309-368.
  • 6Albert J H,Chib S. Bayes inference via Gibbs sampling of autoregressive time series subject to Makov mean and variance shifts[J].Journal of Business and Economics Statistics,1993,(01):1-15.
  • 7Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity[J].Journal of Econometrics,1986,(03):307-327.
  • 8Nelson D B. Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return:A new approach[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1991,(02):347-370.
  • 9Glosten L R,Jagannathan R,Runkle D E. On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks[J].The Journal of Finance,1993,(05):1779-1801.
  • 10Henneke J S,Rachev S T,Fabozzi F J. MCMC-based estimation of Makov switching ARMA-GARCH models[J].Applied Economics,2011,(03):259-271.

引证文献2

二级引证文献12

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部