摘要
研究基于扎龙湿地1955～2004年逐日气温和降水量资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析、小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等方法,探讨了扎龙湿地近50年的气候变化特征。结果表明,研究时段内扎龙湿地年及四季平均气温均呈上升的趋势,年平均气温在1988年发生了一次明显的突变,其后气温达到一个更显著的增暖时期,90年代以来的增温非常显著,该时期是50年以来的最高温期。扎龙湿地年及各季降水量除春季外均呈减少趋势,以秋季降水减少最为明显,研究时段内无明显的突变过程。扎龙湿地未来几年气候存在着向暖干期变化的可能性。
By adopting the methods of moving average,trend analysis,wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall method,the climate change characteristics since recent 50 years were had been analyzed with precipitation and temperature data of Zhalong wetland from 1955 to 2004.The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature appeared to be ascending.Annual mean temperature had a sudden change in 1988,since then the warmer period had appeared.The period from 1990s to now is the warmest in the recent 50 years.Annual precipitations and seasonal precipitations all showed the trend of decreasing except spring,and it decreased remarkably in fall.Annual precipitations did not have the sudden change.It will have the possibility of warming and drying for Zhalong wetland in the coming years.
出处
《东北农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期61-65,共5页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural University
基金
黑龙江省留学归国人员科学技术专项资金(LC07C34)
关键词
扎龙湿地
气候变化
气温
降水
Zhalong wetland
climate change
temperature
precipitation
