摘要
根据贝叶斯理论,分别对只考虑参数估计或线型选择不确定性、以及同时考虑这2种不确定性情况下的水文频率计算问题进行研究,提出设计值估计及其不确定性评价方法,并提供了分析示例.研究结果表明,对给定的样本条件,仅考虑参数估计或线型选择不确定性的设计值估计方法,都不能对水文频率分析计算的不确定性做出完整描述,应采用同时考虑这2种不确定性的分析方法.提出的基于贝叶斯理论的水文频率分析方法,不仅可以提供设计值的各种点估计,还可以定量评价水文频率分析结果的不确定性.
Based on Bayesian theory,computation of hydrological frequency has been studied considering parameter uncertainty only,model uncertainty only or both.Approaches to design value estimation and evaluation of its uncertainty have been proposed and illustrated with an example.The analysis results indicate that,to the given samples,both parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty should be considered in hydrological frequency analysis as the design value estimation method considering only one of them cannot achieve complete description of the uncertainties in the analysis.The proposed Bayesian-based method can provide not only various point estimations of design values but also quantitative evaluation of uncertainties of hydrological frequency analysis results.
出处
《天津大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期379-384,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)资助项目(2007CB714104)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779013)
高等学校学科创新引智计划资助项目(B08048)
关键词
水文频率分析
设计值
贝叶斯理论
线型不确定性
参数不确定性
hydrological frequency analysis
design value
Bayesian theory
model uncertainty
parameter uncertainty
