摘要
通过一个两阶段Bass模型来研究企业在推出新产品的过程中,老产品和新产品市场占有率的变化,以及如何设定新产品对老产品的替代度才能保证企业总市场占有率不会下降的问题。研究发现:第一,新老产品的销售量和市场占有率存在均衡状态。第二,在均衡状态下,新老产品的相对市场占有率恒定。第三,市场对新产品和老产品负面影响(不良口碑加上竞争产品)的相对强弱,以及厂商对老产品促销力度占总促销力度的比例,这两个因素的关系会影响新产品对老产品替代度的设定。如果前者小于后者,则替代度需要小于一个阀值才能使得市场占有率增加;但如果前者大于后者,则替代度的取值则没有限制。
Based on a two-phase Bass model, this paper studies the impact of the substitution ratio of new product for old product on the market share of the two products, and the way to set the substitution ratio to increase the total marketing share of the manufacturer is also studied. Three conclusions were found： firstly, the equilibrium of the sales and market share of new product and old product exists; secondly, with such equilibrium, the sales and market share of the two products increase or decrease proportionally; thirdly, the product substitution setting is influenced by the relationship between the relative degree of the negative effect of markets on new and old product （i. e. negative WOM and competition products） and the proportion of marketing effort for old products to the total marketing effort. Concretely, if the former is less than the latter, the product substitution has to be lower than a fixed value and if the former is greater than the latter, the product substitution setting has no limit.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期59-63,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然基金资助项目(70121001)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-06-0853)
关键词
产品替代度
市场占有率
BASS模型
不良口碑
促销力度
竞争产品
Product Substitution
Market Share
Bass Model
Negative Word-of-Mouth
Marketing Effort
Competition Product
