摘要
中国对外贸易与经济增长运行轨迹极为一致,实证研究表明二者存在着极强的相关关系。中国对外贸易与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,进口与出口都对经济增长产生正向的影响,其中,出口与经济增长之间存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,而进口只是出口的单向格兰杰原因,进口与经济增长之间格兰杰因果关系不显著。中国应继续推进出口贸易的发展以促进经济增长,同时应重视进口对经济增长的作用,改善进口的经济效应。
Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.
出处
《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期113-117,共5页
Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)
