摘要
为了提高玉米产量预测的精度。利用熵值法为每种单一预测模型分配加权系数;将各单一预测模型的预测结果加权求和得到了组合预测模型的预测结果,建立了玉米产量组合预测模型。利用2000～2006年玉米产量资料进行模型精度检验,结果表明,组合预测模型的精度有明显提高,说明应用组合预测方法进行玉米产量预测是可行的。
A combination forecasting method was applied to forecast the corn crop yield and to achieve the objective for improving the precision of prediction.The weight of each model in the combination forecasting model was calculated with entropy theory.The forecasting results of all the methods were weighted and summed to gain the combination forecasting result,and the corn yield combination forecasting model was built.The combination forecasting model was used to examine the cron yield from 2000 to 2006,the forecast precision was obviously improved.The conclusion shows that it is feasible that a combination forecasting method is applied to forecast the corn yield.
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期125-127,共3页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
基金
国家"863"计划项目(2006AA10A039)
农业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200803037)
关键词
熵值法
产量预测
精细农业
组合预测模型
entropy theory
crop yield forecast
precision agriculture
corn yield combination forecasting model
