摘要
本文采用协同学方法提出一种“现象→结论”的洪水预报模式,以避免目前采用的成因预测方法带来的问题。文章主要包括两大内容:①从历史洪水记录中提取概率信息的方法;②建立预报未来洪水重现概率的计算公式体系。
Have the aid of Synergetics Method, a 'phemomenon→conclusion' flood forecast model is established to tackle the problems coming from the formation-cause-forecast method used in flood prediction at present. The model consists of two parts: the method of extracting probability information implicated in time series records of historical flood and the formalism to use to make estimates for the recurrence probability of flood activity.
出处
《山西师大学报（自然科学版）》
1998年第3期78-81,共4页
Journal of Shanxi Teachers University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
协同学方法
时间关联性
洪水预报
含时概率
Synergetics method Sequence parameter Time-correlation behaviour Static probability Timedependent probability
