摘要
气候变化已成为当前各国关注的重大环境问题,气温变化特征及其趋势分析是研究气候变化的重要内容。根据铜陵市气象站1960～2008年气温观测资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法,分析了近49年来铜陵市气温变化特征及其趋势。结果表明：（1）近49年来,铜陵市年平均气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.208℃/10a,且达到0.05显著水平,气温时间序列在2004年发生了由低温向高温突变。（2）年内气温变化存在季节性差异,除夏季外,春、秋、冬3个季节气温均呈上升趋势且达到0.05显著性水平,春季升温最为明显,其次为冬季和秋季。夏季气温升幅最小。
Climate change has become the major international environmental issue.The characteristics and tendencies of temperature variation were the main study content of climate change.Based on the air temperature data of Tongling from 1960 to 2008,using linear regression method,Mann-Kendall method and accumulative anomaly method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual temperature variation were analyzed.The results showed that：（1） In the last 49 years,the annual average temperature in Tongling was in upward tendency obviously,and the average rising rate was 0.208℃ per 10 years.There was an abrupt temperature change in 2004.（2）There were seasonal differences on the variation of temperature.The temperature in spring,autumn and winter ascended and their temperature increases were significant at 0.05 leve1.The variation of summer temperature was the minimum.
出处
《安徽农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期346-351,共6页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40671117
40771117)资助
