摘要
武器系统费用影响因素众多,各因素作用机理复杂,导致费用分布呈波动性和不稳定性。基于此,提出了一种改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型。该模型采用傅立叶级数和马尔科夫链方法,对不稳定武器费用系统的周期和随机现象进行建模,以提高预测精度。实例仿真结果表明:改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型可有效解决不稳定的武器费用预测问题,且具有良好的预测性能。
There are many factors that affect the armament cost prediction.These factors are so comp-licated as to result in fluctuation and instability in the distribution of cost.For this purpose,this paper proposes an improved grey GM（1,1） model,which uses Fourier series and Markov chain to model the periodic and stochastic phenomenon of the system for further improving the forecasting precision.The practical case indicates that the improved model,which has better forecasting performance,can effectively raise precision in forecasting ornament system cost.
出处
《海军工程大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第2期108-112,共5页
Journal of Naval University of Engineering
基金
海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(HGDJJ08042)
