摘要
文章以泉州市为例,采用泉州市1977—2008年的GDP总量数据为基础,通过建立ARMA时间序列模型,对泉州市2009-2015年"十二五"规划期间的经济发展形势进行预测。结果表明,ARMA模型能够很好地预测GDP序列值,而且便于操作,为其它地区市域经济发展的估计和预测提供了很好的借鉴,文章的预测结果也为政府相关部门制定经济调控政策提供建议。
Based on the statistics of GDP of Quanzhou during 1977-2007, this paper forecasts the Quanzhou eco- nomic development during the twelfth five-year by the ARMA time series model. The results show that ARMA model can well predict the sequential value of GDP and is easy to operate, which provides a good idea for forecasting the regional economic development of other regions. The results provide suggestions for the relevant government departments to make economic policy regulation
出处
《四川理工学院学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第2期83-86,共4页
Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering(Social Sciences Edition)
