摘要
利用花粉气候响应面模型进行古气候重建是通过将化石花粉数据与花粉气候响应面模型进行相似性对比分析来实现的，研究结果表明，在内蒙古中部地区１万年来经历了凉湿期→冷暖干湿剧烈波动期，且有凉湿、温干的气候组合→全新世温暖期→气候波动期的气候变化。经与传统、常规直观分析方法对比，利用响应面模型恢复的古气候数据基本上与采用常规方法得到的结论相符，但它能够提供更多的气候变迁细节，且能提供定量的古气候数据，便于据此检验全球变化模型的可靠性及可信度。据此可以认为，利用响应面恢复古气候是很有前途的一种新方法，对于两种方法所得结论的矛盾之处。
This is the first trial in China to use the pollen climate response surface model to quantitatively reconstruct the palaeoclimate in the middle part of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in Holocene. The principle of this method is to compare the data of fossil pollen of each sample of the section with the pollen data of the response surface model that was established upon the samples of surface earth, and calculated their coefficient of correlation. It was supposed that the pollen data of the response surface model, the one having the maximum coefficient of correlation with the samples of the section, represented the palaeoclimate when the samples of the section deposited. So the palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment could be reconstructed. In the present research work, at first those dominated pollen types in the samples of the section that have already been founded the response surface model were selected. Secondly according to the need, the climatic space( mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) of those pollen types was evenly divided into several grids, each node of grids is a data point. And then the response surface model was used to calculate the percentage of those pollen types on each node. Finally this group data were compared with the group data of the pollen percentage of the tested samples of the section, and reckoned their coefficient of correlation. The group data of the response surface model, the one having the maximum coefficient, has the same climatic parameter of the samples of the section.It was suggested that the palaeoclimate change in the middle part of the Inner Mongolia had undergone through the following stages: cold arid, temperate wet, warm wet, temperate arid and cold arid, and the climatic optimum occurred in 5000～4100 a BP. This result was identical with those obtained by other methods. Comparing with other routine methods the response surface model could reveal a lot of small changes of the palaeoclimate, provide the quantitative data of palaeoclimate, verify the reliability and creditability of global change model. The research model mainly based on 215 pollen data of the samples of the surface earth in the north China. Because of the insufficient pollen data of the surface earth samples, this research work was only considered as an attempt for a quantitative reconstruction of reconstruct the palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment.
基金
国家自然科学基金
