摘要
用奇异谱分析检测兰州最近６４年气温的长期倾向和周期振荡得到其总倾向是增暖的，年代际振荡振幅较大。１９４６～１９６７年降温约１℃，１９６８年至９０年代前期升温约１．３℃。年际和月际振荡主要有７．５年、３．３年、７．６９月和３．３８月。１９７６年起季节循环有明显变化，冬季变暖夏季变凉，月平均气温的年较差比前４３年减小１．７℃。用ＳＳＡ－ＭＥＭ可以做４个月的月平均气温距平预报。
The long term trend and oscillations of Lanzhou temperature over recent 64 years are detected by using the singular spectrum analysis . Results show that there is a general warming all over the period. The amplitude of interdecadal oscillations is large, with a cooling of 1℃ from 1946 to 1967 and a warming of about 1.3℃ from 1968 to the earlier mineties. There are also interannual and intermonthly oscillation periods of 7.5 year , 3.3 year , 7.69 month , 3.38 month . Since 1976 strong changes in seasonal cycle have taken place, with winters becoming warmer and summers colder. The annual range of monthly mean temperature in the latest 21 years was 1.7℃ less than in the earlier 43 years . The monthly mean temperature anomaly for 4 months extension may be predicted by using SSA MEM .
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1998年第4期629-636,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家"九五"重中之重项目
关键词
气温变化
振荡
奇异谱分析
预报试验
长期趋势
air temperature, temperature trend, temperature oscillation, singular spectrum analysis
