摘要
为分析1949～2009年间中国经济体制改革及改革开放以来中国经济增长的态势及其路径演进,明确当下中国经济处于何种增长区间,以及下一阶段经济增长的可持续性问题,构建了改革演进的理论框架,将新中国成立以来的经济增长路径分为4个阶段。以新古典经济增长模型为基础,通过放宽限制条件,构建计量经济模型拟合中国经济的增长路径。以"整体推进"阶段的实证数据检验模型的正确性并得出结论:中国的经济增长尚处于经济起飞阶段;下一阶段仍将维持经济的高位增长,具有可持续性。
In order to analysis the tendency and the evolution process of China＇s economic growth between 1949-2009 and get clearly which stage is China＇s economic staging in, meanwhile find out how the next stage China＇s economic sustainability will be, we constructed a theoretical framework of reform evolution and divided China＇s economic growth path into 4 stages. Simultaneously, we also constructed an econometrics model which was mainly based on Neo-Classical economic growth model to simulate China＇s economic growth path but by losing some constrain conditions. The conclusion was that China＇s economy was still in the economy take-off stage and the sustainability of next stage will remain in the high speed. The conclusion was proofed by the empirical data from promoting the deepening of reform as a whole and perspective of institutional economics.
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2010年第4期65-68,75,共5页
Ecological Economy
关键词
经济体制改革
经济增长
增长路径
中国经济
reformation of economic system
economic growth
growth path
economic of china
