摘要
着眼于人地系统的复杂动态特征,基于东北地区农业地域系统的结构分析,运用系统动力学理论方法,构建农业地域系统演变的动态仿真模型。依据区域农业发展态势与未来目标,进行多情景模拟,提炼出传统发展、种植业结构优化发展和农牧综合协调发展3种代表性调控模式。对比分析后认为,农牧综合协调发展模式是东北地区农业地域系统较为合理的发展模式。构建合理农业地域结构必须控制非农用地快速扩张、挖掘农业综合生产潜能、培育优势农产品基地和产业带。
Applying system dynamics method to establish models of regional sustainable development can depict systemic nonlinear structure and dynamic character more adequately than traditional mathematic models.Based on the structure,function and coupling mechanism analysis of agricultural territorial system,the dynamic simulation model of agricultural territorial structure change was established,and according to the trend and aim of regional agriculture development,the multiple scene dynamic simulation was carried out,and three typical development modes of regional agricultural territorial system were optimized and comparatively analyzed.By Comparative Analysis,the coordinated development mode of agriculture and animal husbandry is the reasonable development mode.To establish reasonable agricultural territorial structure,the northeast China should attach great importance to control the non-agricultural land,to excavate comprehensive potentiality of agriculture production,and to nurture advantage agricultural production bases and industrial belts.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期60-65,共6页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40601027)
黑龙江省科技攻关重点项目(GB08D101-3)
东北地理与农业生态研究所学科前沿领域项目(KZCX3-SW-NA3-19)资助
关键词
农业地域系统
动态模拟
发展模式
东北地区
agricultural territorial system
dynamic simulation
development modes
Northeast China
