摘要
论文采用2003-2006年来自中国ST上市公司的数据,对于盈余管理是否增加财务危机预警的预测能力进行分析,即在财务信息、公司治理变量的预测模型中加入盈余管理变量,建立Lo-gistic回归分析模型。研究发现:(1)财务危机公司相对正常公司,于财务危机发生前盈余管理程度较高。(2)盈余管理程度越高,公司财务危机发生的概率越高。(3)加入盈余管理程度变量能增加财务危机预警模型的解释能力。(4)加入盈余管理、公司治理结构特征的财务预警模型也能提高财务危机预警模型的解释能力,其预测的正确概率分别为前一年的98.9%,前二年为90.6%,前三年为75.3%。论文最后提出,如果上市公司能加强公司治理,进行盈余预测,可以很好的控制财务危机的发生概率。
This research analyzes the data of the ST listed firms between 2003 and 2006 in the Chinese Securities Market and discuses whether earnings management can improve the predictability of fi- nancial crisis. The research has the flowing conclusion： （i） A comparison of the earnings management in the listed firms facing financial crisis with that in other listed firms reveals that the former has a higher degree of earnings management. （ii） The higher degree of earnings management, the higher probability of the listed firms facing financial crisis is. （iii） Degree variables of earnings management can improve the pre-warning financial model. （iv） The pre-warning financial model supported by good earnings management and corporate governance can also improve the pre-warning financial model with an accuracy rate of 98. 9% , 90. 6% and 75. 3% for one year, two years or three years respectively. The research finally concludes that if these listed firms can improve their management and earnings prediction, they will be in a better position to control their financial crisis.
出处
《云南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2010年第2期133-141,共9页
Journal of Yunnan Normal University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition
关键词
财务危机
盈余管理
公司治理
财务信息
预测
financial crisis
earnings management
corporate governance
financial information
prediction
