摘要
用过去或现在的管道投资费规划设计未来的管道建设，可能导致建设期投资费不足，需先预测投资费再作规划设计；不同直径、壁厚的油气管道，其投资费亦不相同，需用回归方法来拟合其离散数据。因此，采用灰色预测和二元线性回归方法相结合，建立油气管道投资费的预测数学模型。算例用１４年的价格指数组成时间序列，采用新陈代谢ＧＭ（１，１）动态预测方法预测价格指数；将管道基期投资费按四组小范围的管径规格进行划分，再分别建立二元线性回归模型，并与管径规格不分组的回归模型进行比较，用分组的回归模型计算的基期管道投资费精度高、误差小。计算机运行结果表明预测、回归结果令人满意。经计算、分析、综合后，获得四组不同管径范围的管道投资费预测数学模型，预测出第１５年的管道投资费。由此可预测和计算第１６、１７、１８年的管道投资费。同时，还强调预测与计算中需注意的三个问题。
It may cause the investment insufficient during constructing to plan and design the future pipeline construction on the basis of the previous or current investment in the pipeline construction,thus it is necessary to predict the investment first,then to make the plan and design.The investment in oil or/and gas pipelines with various diameters and thicknesses is different,which discrete coefficient needs to be fitted by regression analysis.A mathematical model of predicting the investment in oil or/and gas pipeline is set up through adopting the method of combining grey predication with bivariate linear regression.The time series is composed of the price indexes in fourteen years in the example and the price indexes are predicted by use of the metabolism GM(1,1) dynamic predication method.The division of the base period investment in pipeline construction is carried out according to four groups of pipelines with small diameter range and their bivariate linear regression models are set up respectively.The regression model of the group divided pipeline is more accurate than that of the group undivided one in calculating the base period investment.The predicted result by computer is satifactory.Through calculating,analyzing and comprehending,the mathematical models of predicting the investments in four groups of pipelines with various diameter ranges are achieved.The investments in pipeline construction in the fifteenth year have been predicted and those in the sixteenth,seventeenth and eighteenth years may be also predicted in the same way.Meanwhile,it is emphasized that three problems must be also paid attention to in predicting and calculating.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第6期68-71,共4页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
油气集输管道
投资
计算
灰色预测
Oil and gas gathering,Pipe line,Investment,Fuzzy mathematics,Prediction,Mathematical model,Calculation
