摘要
三江源地区是长江、黄河以及澜沧江的发源地。开展该地区水资源预测研究对于该区生态环境保护以及下游水资源合理规划与调配都具有重要意义。现对三江源地区5个主要水文站1957年-2005年的月径流序列,通过统计相关分析,探讨三江源地区径流变化、融雪径流时间变化与ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)、PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)等大尺度气候信号月/月组合值的关系。研究表明,三江源的香达站(r=0.3,P=0.048)、直门达站(r=0.324,P=0.023)与唐乃亥站(r=0.367,P=0.009)年径流量与水文年前一年8月、9月SOI之和值在95%置信水平上存在正相关关系。香达站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐乃亥站(r=-0.313,P=0.029)以及直门达站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)的月径流与相应前8个月的Nio3.4值呈显著负相关。三江源地区的5个水文站点的月径流都与相应的前第9个月的PDO值呈负相关,且都在95%置信水平上显著。三江源地区融雪径流时间与水文年前一年8月的PDO呈负相关,其中香达站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐乃亥站(r=-0.313,P=0.029)以及直门达站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)表现出了强的负相关,且在95%置信水平上显著。此外,黄河源吉迈站(r=0.347,P=0.014)、唐乃亥站(r=0.312,P=0.029)融雪径流时间与水文年前一年5月的SOI值有显著正相关。
Sanjiangyuan is the source regions of the Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River. Reliable forecasting of the water resources in Sanjiangyuan is valuable for local ecological protection as well as rational planning and allocation of water resources in its lower reaches. Based on the monthly streanaflow of five major hydrological stations in Sanjiangyuan, this paper quantified the relationships between variability of streamflow, snowmelt runoff timing and activities of ENSO and PDO. Statistic analysis shows that annual streamflow in Sanjiangyuan was significantly correlated with the sum of SOI of August and September in previous year at 95% confidence level. （r = 0.3, P = 0. 048 for Xiangda, r = 0. 324, P = 0. 023for Zhimenda and r = 0. 367, P = 0. 009 for Tangnaihai. Monthly streamflow of Xiangda Station（r =- 0. 359, P = 0. 017）, Tangnaihai Station（r =- 0. 313, P = 0. 029）, and Zhimenda Station（r =- 0. 314, P = 0. 028） were negatively correlated with the monthly Nifio3. 4 values of eight months before the streamflow at 95 % confidence level. Significant correlations were also identified between monthly streamflow and the PDO of pre-nine months. The snowmelt runoff timing in Sanjiangyuan were negative correlation with the PDO values in former August at 95 % confidence level. It was also found that snowmelt runoff timing of Jimai and Tangnaihai were significantly correlated with May＇s SOl of the last year. The findings in this study would provide a theoretical basis for forecasting water resources in Sanjiangyuan.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
2010年第2期49-52,共4页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
科技部国际合作重点项目:"青海省三江源国家级自然保护区水资源预测系统研究"
