摘要
汽车保有量的预测是城市交通规划的一项基础性工作,是制定各种交通需求管理措施的重要依据。分析影响城市汽车保有量的因素,将城市划分成不同的交通小区,并建立相应的评价模型对各小区进行综合评价。同时利用某一小区以往汽车保有量资料,建立基于分段外推法的城市汽车保有量预测模型,为城市汽车保有量的近期预测提供有效方法。
The forecast of vehicle ownership is a basic work to urban transportation planning and also is an important basis for urban to make a variety of travel demand management measures. By analyzing the effect to the urban vehicle ownership that divided the city into different traffic areas and established the corre- sponding evaluation model for a comprehensive evaluation of each district. At the same time ,used the past car ownership information of a district ,we established the forecasting of urban vehicle ownership based on sub-extrapolation model, which provided an efficient way for urban car ownership in recent forecast.
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2010年第2期9-11,15,共4页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金
安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(090414162)
关键词
汽车保有量
交通小区
回归分析
预测
urban vehicle ownership
traffic area
regression analysis
forecasting
