摘要
采用超定量取样方法,从洪水发生时间和量级两个方面考虑,建立了基于Copula函数的洪水发生时间和量级的两变量联合分布,提出了一种新的分期设计洪水计算方法,并与现有的方法进行比较.应用实例结果表明:所推求的分期设计洪水既能符合防洪标准要求,又能够满足分期设计洪水与年设计洪水的关系;主汛期的设计值相对年最大设计值有小幅度增加,而非主汛期设计值则小于年最大设计值;比现有的分期设计洪水计算方法更加合理可行,为分期设计洪水分析计算提供了一条新的途径.
Based on Copula function,a bivariate joint distribution which considers the flood occurrence dates and magnitudes of the peaks-over-threshold（POT） sampling series was established.A new seasonal design flood estimation method was proposed and compared with current methods.Case study results show that the proposed method could satisfy both flood prevention standard and the relations between the annual and seasonal design floods.The seasonal design floods estimated by the proposed method are slightly greater than annual design floods in the main flood season and less in other flood seasons.The proposed method is superior to current methods and provides a new way for seasonal flood estimation.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期20-24,共5页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(编号:2006BAC14B06)
水利部科研专项(编号:200701015)
武汉大学2008年博士研究生(含1+4)自主科研项目
关键词
分期设计洪水
超定量取样
COPULA函数
联合分布
seasonal design flood peaks-over-threshold sampling method Copula function joint distribution
