摘要
洪涝是各种物理因子综合作用的结果.由于这些因子表现出趋势变化、周期变化和偶然变化等规律,因而洪涝序列中带有趋势变化、周期变化和随机变化等成分.这样,根据趋势变化分析、周期变化分析和随机变化分析综合集成的方法来寻求钱塘江流域洪涝年的长期变化过程是可行的,提出的综合预测模型效果较好.
The problem of comprehensive forecast of flood-waterlogging year of the Qiantang River Basin is discussed. It has been known that flood-waterlogging year results from comprehensive action of various physical factors. Because these factors have the laws of trend, period and arbitrary change, there are trend, period and arbitrary change components in flood-waterlogging series, hence comprehensively reflecting the process of long period change of flood-waterlogging series Y(t) by means of trend item T(t), period item P(t) and arbitrary item A (t) has been put forward: Y(t)=T(t) + P(t) + A(t) (t=1, 2,…). The result indicates that it is feasible that the process of long period change of flood-waterlogging year of the Qiantang River Basin is researched by means of comprehensive method, and the effect of comprehensive forecast model put forward is comparatively good. Therefore comprehensive forecast by means of change process of flood-waterlogging series itself is a comparatively effective way, which is of actual significance for flood-waterlogging prevention and sustainable development in the basin.
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第6期538-541,共4页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
关键词
洪涝年
趋势变化
周期变化
综合预测
钱塘江流域
Flood-waterlogging year
Trend change
Period change
Arbitrary change
Comprehensive forecast
