摘要
基于计量经济学理论,依据人口数、人均GDP、主场优势、社会制度、上届奥运会的成绩,利用多元非线性回归分析建立初步模型;考虑世界各国竞技体育实力存在差距,利用模糊C均值聚类分析理论,将竞技体育实力划分为5个等级,通过引入虚拟变量,提出经济学与竞技体育实力差异理论相结合的改进模型,对2008年北京奥运会奖牌数进行预测分析。结果表明,该模型既能揭示世界各国奥运会奖牌数变化的总体趋势,又能克服竞技体育实力差异对预测精度的影响;适用于大型国际综合性运动会奖牌数的预测,具有较强的科学性和可行性。
Based on theories of econometrics, population, GDP per capita, home advantage, social system, achievements in the previous Olympic Games, this paper established a preliminary model with multiple non-linear regression analysis. Considering the discrepancy in competitive sports strength between countries, the authors divided competitive sports strength into five scales with fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm. By introducing dummy variable, the au- thors proposed a revised model which combines theories of economics and discrepancy in compotitive sports strength, and conducts a prediction analysis of the number of medals in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Results showed that this model can reveal the general tendency in the change of Olympic medals won by different countries, and can overcome the influence of discrepancy in competitive sports strength on prediction precision. This model can be applied to the prediction of the number of medals in international general games due to its seientificity and feasibility.
出处
《天津体育学院学报》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期86-90,共5页
Journal of Tianjin University of Sport
基金
国家体育总局体育文化发展中心项目(项目编号:08TYWH146)
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(项目编号:AHSK07-08D102)
