摘要
农户的农业生产决策过程实际上是基于多目标的,除了传统的利润最大化目标外,还考虑诸如规避风险、减少家庭劳动力投入等目标。在农户多目标决策研究中,各目标权重的估计是一个难点,已有的研究一般采用目标规划方法对权重进行估计。本文提出一阶条件校准这一新的估计法,利用实际农户抽样数据,分别对所有农户以及两种不同类型农户的各目标权重进行了估计。研究结果表明,一阶条件校准法的估计结果显著优于目标规划方法;农户对各目标的重视程度依次为利润最大化、减少家庭劳动力投入和规避风险;以农业为主的农户更加偏重利润和风险目标,而以非农业为主的农户更加重视减少家庭劳动力目标;农户的目标权重随时间而调整,随着非农就业的发展,劳动力目标权重有所增加,而其他目标权重有所减少。
Farmers＇ production decision is based on multiple objectives, including profit maximization, risk minimization, and saving family labor input. Appropriate estimation of weights for multiple objectives is challenge. The conventional approach to estimate the weights often follows Goal Programming, GP. In this paper a new approach, an Adjusted measure based on the First- Order Condition, AFOC, is developed. Based on primary household survey data, we estimate the weights for representative （or average） farmer as well as two different clustered representative farmers. Simulation results demonstrate that the multi-objective decision model based on AFOC estimation performs better than the one based on GP. The estimated weights show that profit is farmer＇s first objective, which is tbllowed by saving family labor input and then risk aversion. Farmers with more income from crop sector have higher weights for profit and risk aversion than the other farmers with less income from crops. The weights for objectives change over time. As the off-farm participation rose, the weight for family labor input has been increasing, while others have been falling.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期148-157,160,共11页
Economic Research Journal
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KSCX2-YW-N-039
KSCX1-YW-09-04)的资助
关键词
多目标
决策模型
农作物生产
权重
Multi-objective
Decision Model
Crop Production
Weights
