摘要
本文基于企业异质性贸易理论框架,利用1995—2005年HS-6位数国际贸易数据,客观描述了中国出口增长二元边际结构的特征性事实。文章发现,无论在多边层次还是在双边层次,中国的出口增长主要是沿着集约的边际实现的,扩展的边际占据的比重很小。利用Tobit模型的经验研究进一步发现,经济规模、多边阻力、固定成本、生产率水平、区域经济一体化、中间产品属性等对二元边际并不具备相同的影响机制。特别地,外部冲击对集约的边际构成显著的负面冲击,但对扩展的边际却并不存在负面影响。这些结论不仅为上述解释提供了更为可靠的经验支持,也将为贸易结构改革提供丰富的政策含义。
The financial crisis exposes sufficiently the vulnerability when China export growth faces the external shock. Based on the heterogeneous firm trade model, using the HS-6 international trade data in 1995--2005, this paper describes the stylized facts of the dual margin of China export growth. We find that, whether on the multilateral or on the bilateral, China export growth mainly depends on the intensive trade margin, the extensive trade margin is very little. The obvious bias to the intensive trade margin of China export growth structure help us understand why the external shock like financial crisis can easily affect China export and the continuous deterioration of the terms of trade even though there is a period of export boom. So, China export growth should turn quickly to the extensive trade margin. Furthermore, using Tobit model, the empirical research shows that there is no common impact mechanisms on the dual trade margin, or exists the difference to some extent. The conclusion will not only provide the more credible empirical support for the above explanation, but also the abundant policy meanings for the trade structure reform.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期65-79,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"HME模型拓展构造与中国贸易内生增长的机制与路径研究"(70903076)
教育部人文社科青年基金项目"FDI
集聚与东道国利益"(08JC790102)
国家社科基金项目"推进外贸体制改革"(07BJL042)
中南财经政法大学青年教师研究基金项目(21130910801)的阶段性成果
关键词
企业异质性
二元边际
外部冲击
出口波动
贸易条件
Heterogeneous Firm
Dual Margin
External Shock
Export Volatility
Terms of Trade
