摘要
储罐底板腐蚀状况的严重程度是指导储罐维修的主要指标。针对难以停产检测储罐底板腐蚀的情况,利用统计相关分析方法,结合专家经验,确定反应储罐底板腐蚀状况的主要外部表征因素,建立基于外部表征因素的储罐底板腐蚀状况贝叶斯判别预测方法。通过对某油库16台储罐的预测分析,对比声发射在线检测结果,符合率为87.5%。计算结果表明,该方法能够解决储罐底板腐蚀状况的预测问题,具有一定的工程应用价值。
The condition of tank bottom corrosion is the main indicators to guide the maintenance of tank. Considering the difficulty to shut down and carry out testing on tank floors, combining with expertise , the major external factors of the tank bottom corrosion are determined with variance analysis. The Bayes distinguishing prediction technique is established. Through the prediction and analysis on 16 tanks in a depot, comparing with the result of acoustic emission testing, coincidence rate reaches 87.5%. The results show that this prediction technique is able to resolve the problem of the prediction of tank bottom corrosion, and can be applied in engineering applications.
出处
《压力容器》
北大核心
2010年第1期31-34,共4页
Pressure Vessel Technology
关键词
贝叶斯判别
储罐底板腐蚀
预测
声发射检测
bayes distinguishing analysis
tank bottom corrosion
prediction
acoustic emission testing
