摘要
以灰色系统灾变预测理论为基础,以预测掘进面钻孔瓦斯动力异常期为目标,建立了钻孔瓦斯动力异常GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。通过对模型预测结果的残差分析和现场实测结果检验表明,钻孔瓦斯动力异常期的灰色预测结果与实测数据拟合精度高,建立的瓦斯动力异常期灰色预测系统方法可行,预测结果可靠。
Based on the grey theory system for disaster forecast,a GM（1,1） grey catastrophe prediction model is established in order to forecast drill-hole abnormal gas dynamic catastrophe periods.Residual analysis shows high fitting precision between results of grey prediction system and the original data.The scene actual results also show the reliability of the forecast.Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicates feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe forecast system.
出处
《中国煤炭》
北大核心
2009年第12期86-88,95,共4页
China Coal
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题(2005CB221503)
煤炭科学研究总院青年创新基金课题(2005QN35)
