摘要
利用上海地区1999—2007年的探空资料、地面观测资料和历史天气图资料,从雷暴发生的形势场入手,分析上海地区雷暴主要类型。选取合理、适当的对流参数对于短时局地强雷雨天气的潜势预测、强度判别是有指示意义的。利用天气型、K指数、沙氏指数以及对流有效位能作为预报因子,采用逐步消空法找出雷暴识别指标集合,变小概率事件为条件概率下的大概率事件,进而提高雷电潜势预报准确率。
The sounding data, ground alyze the main types of thunderstorms in S observation data and weather chart information are used to anhanghai, started from the situation field of thunderstorms. A detail method of recognizing thunderstorm was introduced by step-wise decreasing FAR. The synoptic pattern, K index, SI index and Convective Available Potential Energy （CAPE） were used as the factors to produce the indicator set of thunderstorm recognition ,which were selected to be reasonable for the potential trend forecast of strong thunderstorms in the short-term weather. It can be seen that a method to improve the forecast accuracy of rare events is to turn the rare events from very little probability into large probability by conditional probability .
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期810-814,共5页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
2008年公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806014)
关键词
逐步消空法
高空槽
雷电潜势预报
强对流参数
Stepwise decreasing FAR method High-altitude trough Lightning potential forecast Severe convective parameters
