摘要
随着人民币国际化的不断深入,人民币国际化问题越来越成为学术界关注的热点。文章沿用李稻葵、刘霖林(2008)设计的三种预测人民币国际化程度的情景,运用一个中国动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型-MCHUGE模型,分析人民币国际化对中国进出口贸易的影响,研究不同人民币国际化程度下的经济走势。仿真结果表明:人民币国际化对贸易条件的改善、就业及产业优化都具有正向作用。但目前人民币国际化程度还相当低,人民币从初步国际化到完全国际化可能需要相当长的时间。
Internationalization of RMB is a gradual process of development. Currently, this process has already begun. This is a profound influence to our country＇s economic development. With the further internationalization of RMB, the internationalization of the RMB issue has increasingly become a hot academic topic. How and to what degree does RMB internationalization affect China＇s macro-economy？ Based on one of CGE models--China＇s MCHUGE model, this paper researches the effect of RMB internationalization on China＇s current macro-economy and the economic development trend under different degree of internationalization of RMB. The simulation results show that： the internationalization of RBM tends to improve the terms of trade, employment and industry optimization; however, the degree of internationalization of RMB is still quite low now, and it needs a long time to internationalize RMB completely.
出处
《商业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期59-68,共10页
Journal of Business Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(09BJL014)
教育部人文社科研究规划项目(08JA790037)
湖南省社会科学规划项目(08YBB315)
湖南省软科学研究项目(2009ZK3034)
