摘要
利用投入产出分析方法,结合城乡居民生活消费数据,测算了1995年～2004年中国城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能源消耗。研究结果显示:①1995年～2004年,中国城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能耗占一次能源消耗总量的比例从19%增加到30%,人均完全生活能耗从656kg标准煤增加到1040kg标准煤,其中,由生活消费品支出诱发的间接能耗占完全生活能耗的比例从69%上升到79%;②不同收入阶层和不同省区的城镇居民消费诱发的人均能耗存在显著差异,高收入阶层和经济发达的沿海省区城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能耗远高于中低收入阶层和内陆地区,前者的能耗增长速度也快于后者;③以交通出行和居住消费为特征的生活方式转变是诱发能耗增加的重要因素,从全国平均看,居住消费和交通支出诱发的能耗占完全生活能耗的比例2004年达到41%;不同收入阶层和不同区域之间城镇居民居住消费和交通支出诱发的能耗存在着较大差异,高收入阶层和经济发达地区远高于中低收入阶层和中西部地区;④1995年～2004年,全国城镇人均完全生活能耗由于能源强度下降减少了313kg标准煤,如无能源强度下降,人均完全生活能耗将达到697kg标准煤。能源强度下降对高收入阶层和沿海地区的能耗降低效果尤为明显;⑤未来低收入阶层和欠发达区域的生活消费增加将会诱发完全生活能耗的进一步增长。改善民生、保障居民生活消费需要维持一定数量的能耗,降低能源强度对于控制能耗和温室气体排放至关重要,与此同时,需要引导高收入阶层和经济发达地区转变消费模式,积极发展低碳生活方式。
Based on an input-output model,the authors calculated the intensity of energy use for different income groups and 7 provinces in China,and then estimated direct and indirect energy use induced by urban household consumption based on statistics of household living expenditure during the period 1995 to 2004.Results showed that energy use per capita induced by household consumption increased from 656 kgce to 1040 kgce.The ratio of consumption-induced energy use to total energy use increased from 19%to 30%in the past decade.It was found that the ratio of indirect energy use to total consumption-induced energy use increased from 69%to79%during the same period.A significant difference in energy use induced by household consumption across different income groups and different regions could be observed.Energy use per capita for higher income groups and developed regions showed more rapid growth than did lower income groups and developing regions.Changes in lifestyle have driven significant increases in energy use.In particular,increases in private transport expenditure and house building expenditures were key driving factors of energy use growth.In addition,there existed marked differences in the amount of energy use induced by changing lifestyle across different income groups and provinces.Technology innovation has greatly reduced the energy use amount induced by consumption,and such effect was more evident over high income groups/areas.It could be expected that lower income households and developing regions would increase consumption to improve their livings with income growth in the future.Although it may result in much more energy use,a reasonable level of energy use was needed to meet people＇s need and to improve living standard.It was also found that energy use per capita induced by household consumption in developed areas of China reached a quite high level.So adjustment in lifestyle was in urgent need.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第12期2093-2100,共8页
Resources Science
基金
中国科学院"百人计划"择优支持项目:"人地系统相互作用机理与空间过程研究"
中国传媒大学青年理科基金项目:"中国城乡区域间居民能耗和CO2排放分析YNG0807)"
